How can data help us to better understand and respond to the synchronization of infectious outbreaks?

This seminar from the Center for Quantitative Methods and Data Sciences (QM&DS), in partnership with the Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Research Design (BERD) Center at Tufts CTSI and the Data-Intensive Studies Center (DISC) at Tufts University, occurred on Wednesday, March 31 from 2-3pm via Zoom. 

A marked seasonality in many infections, like influenza or salmonellosis, is a well-known phenomenon. When we observe a pronounced seasonal pattern, it gives us a reason to expect high predictability of high or low disease incidence periods in a calendar year. With the expansion of national and global surveillance systems, the opportunities to better understand the local, regional, and global temporal fluctuations are also growing. As we learn more about the seasonality of many infections, and is reasonable to expect that some will co-occur. Yet, patterns of co-occurrences and factors driving such synchronization remain elusive.

In this recorded lecture, Dr. Naumova demonstrates the methodology developed to assess the extent, lag, and directionality of seasonal synchronization. Dr. Naumova provides several examples using national databases, such as the CDC’s Foodborne Disease Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS), and the FluNet supported by the WHO to illustrate seasonal synchronizations among foodborne infections and the challenges of time-referenced surveillance data. The modeling approaches include the trend-adjusted mixed effects nonlinear harmonic regression models and the delta-method to derive the estimates and confidence intervals for the seasonal peak timing and amplitude, allowing us to build local, regional, and global disease calendars. The methodological rigor, standardization, and data harmonization across surveillance systems are enabling comprehensive characterization of disease seasonality and serve as a pathway for implementing the Precision Public Health, Nutrition, and Medicine principles to tailor prevention and intervention strategies.